JD.com Inc. (JD)

Update 11/13/2017: JD reported earnings of $0.1192 per share, beating the Street estimate of $0.10. The share price rose by more than $4 before the opening bell but dropped back by the start of general trading.

Zacks had forecast no earnings surprise in the context of a neutral score (3) and a 1.40 beta.

JD shares closed $1.38 higher the first trading day after earnings were published compared to the final pre-earnings close. That puts the move within the expected 85% chance move of $2.82 and all three post-earns moves metrics of the past year: the average of $1.85, the maximum of $2.77 and the central tendency of $2.18.

During the lifespan of my position, shares rose by 1.4% over three days (including the weekend), or a +174% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.0% return for a +4,019% annual rate.

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JD publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on Nov. 24.

Implied volatility stands at 45%, which is 4.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JD’s IV stands in the 56th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement. 

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11/10 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered an earnings play using options on JD but passed on a similar play on TSN after analysis. I exited three earnings plays using shares: CLMT, ESES and PBYI.

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Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: PBYI, CLMT and ESES.

Outcomes: The CLMT announcement did not happen, as the company released a statement. PBYI’s earnings came in higher than estimated, although still a loss, and ESES came in below the estimate, also still negative. All three positions produced losses.

sym	entry	exit	result ($)	result (%)	entry date	exit date
PBYI	127.50	112.45	-15.05	-11.8%	11/9	11/10
	zacks score	zacks esp	beta	earns est.	earns actual
	3	18.47	0.85	-2.75	-1.36
sym	entry	exit	result ($)	result (%)	entry date	exit date
CLMT	9.80	9.30	-0.50	-5.1%	11/9	11/10
	zacks score	zacks esp	beta	earns est.	earns actual
	3	80.95	1.26	0.16	TBD
sym	entry	exit	result ($)	result (%)	entry date	exit date
ESES	1.51	1.46	-0.05	-3.3%	11/9	11/10
	zacks score	zacks esp	beta	earns est.	earns actual
	3	16.67	2.14	-0.06	-0.1

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NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

NVDA publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Nov. 17.

Implied volatility stands at 51%, which is 4.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NVDA’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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11/9 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered three earnings plays using shares — CLMT, ESES and PBYI — and exited one, ANDV, for a loss. I analyzed NVDA but declined to take the trade, reflecting upon the virtue of trading small.

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Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: ANDV. After earnings delivered a significant upside surprise, shares declined rapidly, despite a positive surprise on both earnings and sales. I exited for a loss, pondering the great truth of our world: In the markets, cause and effect are nonlinear.

Note that I am changing the headline style to list the market symbol of the shares traded.

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11/8 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position keyed to earnings on ANDV and exited MYGN, TTWO, OR and ROK for a net profit on all four.

I passed on an earnings play using options on JCI without a full analysis.

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Share trades entered in connection with earnings announcements: OR, ROK, MYGN and TTWO. I exited the next day, November 8, with profits on MYGN and TTWO, and losses on OR and ROK.

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11/7 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

In today’s outcomes, I rolled FXE forward to a new position as the downtrend continues, entered shares earnings plays on OR, ROK, MYGN and TTWO and exited plays on CORE, LGIH and WLK, and HL.

I also corrected the Shares post labelled as Wednesday to Tuesday, to reflect that the symbols listed were those I traded into today.

11/7 – 2:40 p.m. New York time

I rolled FXE forward to the January monthly options as part of my Elliott wave analysis strategy.

I exited four shares plays coinciding with earnings: CORE, LGIH and WLK, and separately, HL.

I entered four earnings plays with shares: OR, ROK, MYGN and TTWO.

11/7 – 1:25 p.m. New York time

I have rolled FXE forward to a position trading for the last time on Jan. 19, 2018. I shall update the analysis shortly.

11/7 – 10:20 a.m. New York time

I exited four shares positions after earnings were announced, each for a profit, and have updated the Shares posts for each: CORE, LGIH and WLK, and HL.

I’m looking at OR, ROCK, MYGN and TTWO as new share entries on Tuesday, all coinciding with earnings announcements.

The problematic symbols that were on my options prospects list remain problematic. I won’t be doing further analysis MAR, MGM or REGN..

I shall make a decision later int he day on the timing of the roll forward of my FXE position.

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Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: HL. I exited Nov. 7 for a 1.5% profit

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