Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Update 6/22/2017: AAPL remained in a narrow sideways trend during my holding period, and I have exited, ending the roll series at 33% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 0.5% over nine days, or a -20% annual rate. The options position produced a 48.6% yield on debit for a +1,971% annual rate.

Update 6/16/2017: I have rolled AAPL forward to a new position that trades for the last time 14 days hence on June 30. The strike prices remain unchanged — that’s what makes it a roll rather than a new position — and the roll produced an additional $0.44 in premium, increasing the total credit for the roll series $3.79.

I shall defer calculating results until the series is complete.

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AAPL stands at a high level of implied volatility compared to its most recent trend and so is worth looking at more closely as a potential trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 23.

Implied volatility stands at 18%, which is 1.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

AAPL’s IV stands in the 41st percentile of its annual range and the 51st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/13 – 3:40 p.m. New York time

I entered three direction-neutral positions: AAPL, FB and QQQ. I exited THO.

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6/12 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I exited MSFT for a loss. My order to exit THO has not been filled — the price keeps toying with the point of profitability — and I shall keep it active until the closing bell today and deal with it tomorrow.

I entered no new positions.

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The Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting will culminate with an announcement and release of forecasts on Wednesday at 2 p.m., followed by a news conference with Chair Yellen at 2:30 p.m.

The FOMC in 2008 lowered its fed funds rate to a range of from 0.00% to 0.25% on Dec. 16, 2008, and kept it there for long valley of the Great Recession. The money regulators began raising rates seven years later, on Dec. 17, 2015, by a quarter point to 0.25% to 0.50%, and has since raised the target twice, at quarter-point intervals: On Dec. 15, 2017 to 0.50% to 0.75% and last March 16, 2017 to 0.75% to 1.00%.

If they were to raised rates at this week’s meeting, it would be the first break with one-year intervals in nine years. Will they or won’t they? And will the markets care?

Five economic reports of note will be published during the week: At 8:30 a.m., the producer price final demand index on Tuesday; the consumer price index and retail sales on Wednesday, and housing starts on Friday. The industrial production stats will be out on Thursday at 9:15 a.m.

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NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

Update 6/15/2017: NVDA traded sideways during the period I held the position, and I exited at my target price of 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by -1.0% over six days, or a -60% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +2,025% annual rate.

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NVDA has sufficiently high implied volatility on all the metrics I use — against the annual range, current trend and VIX — that it is worth examining for a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on June 23.

Implied volatility stands at 42%, which is 4.1  times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NVDA’s IV stands in the 52nd percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/9 – 3:00 p.m. New York time

In today’s trading outcomes, I exited GLNG , FL and AMBA for losses and entered NVDA as a direction neutral position.

MSFT’s price declined suddenly on news reports of a possible lawsuit. Although it expires a week from today, I intend to hold the position in anticipaton of a rebound on Monday that would, best case, return the position to profitability or, less bad case, mitigate the loss.

6/9 – 12:45 p.m. New York time

I have exited GLNG , FL and AMBA for losses and shall update their analyses with results shortly.

I have decided to delay an exit of THO until next week. Elliott wave analysis suggests that the trend is down, toward profitability.

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Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Update 6/16/2017: Tech stocks, NFLX among them, began a sharp decline the day after I entered into the position, rapidly carrying the price below the profit zone. With a week to go before expiration, I attempted to roll the position forward for a small premium in hopes of a partial recovery, but was unable to get a fill. I instead exited for a loss.

When I entered implied volatility had been rising for a month, coming off of a small pop to the downside after earnings were published, within a context of a price uptrend that had been running for nearly a year. There was no visible trigger for the decline, which hit much of the tech sector.

NFLX shares declined by 7.5% over eight days, or a -341% annual rate. The options position produced a -41% loss o debit for a -1,892% annual rate.

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NFLX has sufficiently high implied volatility in relation to its most recent trend and in comparison to the VIX to support a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on June 23.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NFLX’s IV stands in the 29th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY)

Update 6/9/2017: PAY declined sharply after earnings were published and then rose, remaining well below it’s prior close. The price remained within the zone of profitability throughout the movement. I exited during the bounce, at 37.5% of maximum potential profit, above my 25% target.

Shares showed a net decline of 4.4% over the day I held the position, or a -1,617% annual rate. The options position produced a 60.0% yield on debit for a +21,900% annual rate.

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PAY publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PAY’s IV stands in the 62nd percentile of its annual range and the 99th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/8 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered two positions today, an earnings play on PAY and a time-decay position on NFLX. I exited SJM for a profit.

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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Update 6/12/2017: MSFT, along with other tech stocks, began to decline at entry on June 7, and I exited for a loss on the fourth day of decline as expiration approached.

Shares fell by 4.1% over five days, or a -299% annual rate. The options position produced a -40.9% loss on debit for a -2,986% annual rate.

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MSFT has sufficiently high implied volatility and liquidity to qualify as a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MSFT’s IV stands in the 54th percentile of its annual range and the 72nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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