Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)

Update 5/22/2017: CSCO gapped sharply to the downside after earnings were published, and then traded sideways for three days. I exited for a loss as the options approached expiration.

Shares declined by 7.0% over five days, or a -555% annual rate. Tue options position produced a 49.4% loss on debit for a -3,603% annual rate.

---

CSCO publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 22%, which is 1.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CSCO’s IV stands in the 66th percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)

Update 5/18/2017: BABA gapped sharply to the downside and then partially recovered. I judged it had gone about as far as it could in recovering for the near term, and I exited for a debit of $5.31, or 15.2% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 2.9%  at the time I exited, or a -1,047% annual rate. The options position produced a 17.9% yield on debit for a +6,530% annual rate.

---

BABA publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BABA’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

5/18 – 3 p.m. New York time

I entered four new positions today: BABA, CSCO, WMT and LB.

I exited four positions: JACK, SINA, URBN and TGT.

Read More »

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN)

Update 5/17/2017: URBN fell for five days straight before earnings were published and fell again the day after. I exited at a debit of $1.26, or 40% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by -3.0% over one day, or a -1,086% annual rate. The options position produced a 66.7% yield on debit for a +24,333% annual rate.

---

URBN publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 56%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

URBN’s IV stands in the 78th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Target Corp. (TGT)

Update 5/17/2017: TGT rose sharply after earnings were published and rapidly declined to near where it closed the day before, allowing for an exit at a debit of $2.07, or 31.1% of maximum potential profit.

Shares produced a net rise of 2.1% in a day, or a +757% annual rate. The options position produced a 45.2% yield on debit for a +16,478% annual rate.

---

TGT publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TGT’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and the its most recent broad movement.

Note: The previously posted analysis was done on the monthlys grid expiring June 16. This trade, on the May 26 weeklys, provides a much improved result.

Read More »

Jack in the Box Inc. (sym)

Update 5/17/2017: JACK gapped sharply to the upside and then retraced part of the rise. I exited for a loss with a debit of $9.50.

Shares produced a net rise of 7.6% over a day, or a +2,789% annual rate. The options position produced a -24.7% loss on debit for a -9,029% annual rate.

---

JACK publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 31 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 37%, which is 3.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JACK’s IV stands in the 78th percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

5/16 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered three positions today: JACK, TGT and URBN.

I exited one: HD.

Read More »

SPRRA S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP)

Update 5/22/2017: XOP declinedafter entry for four days as then rose for three, ending close to where it began. I exited as earnings approached at 4.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.7% over seven days, or a +35% annual rate. The options position produced a 5.0% yield on debit for a +261% annual rate.

---

XOP meets my implied volatility criteria for further consideration as a trade.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

XOP’s IV stands in the 36th percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

OAS publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 53%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

OASIS’s IV stands in the 32nd percentile of its annual range and the 70th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

The TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)

Update 5/22/2017: TJX gapped to the downside after earnings were published and then crept back up to about the midpoint of the gap. That partial recovery and the workings of time decay brought the position to profitability. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 2.4% over seven days, or a -123% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +1,738% annual rate.

---

TJX publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TJX’s IV stands in the 74th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »