Two price reports headline the week: The consumer price index on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time and the producer price index on Thursday, also at 8:30 a.m.
Also out, retail sales on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
TDG Analysis
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)
TDG publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 44%, which is 4.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
TDG’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Friday, May 5, 2017
ATVI Analysis
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI)
Update 5/5/2017: ATVI gapped to the upside and then retreated somewhat after earnings were published, moving beyond my target and allowing me to exit at 41.6% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 1.6% over one day, or a +575% annual rate. The options position produced a +71.4% yield on debit for a +26,043 annual rate
ATVI publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on May 19. Although at this point I would prefer the May 12 weeklys, which expire in eight days, the earlier series lacks sufficiently open interest to support a trade.
Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
ATVI’s IV stands in the 72nd percentile of its annual range and the 82nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Thursday, May 4, 2017
TSLA Analysis
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
TSLA publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
TSLA’s IV stands in the 40th percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
FB Analysis
Facebook Inc. (FB)
Update 5/4/2017: FB gapped to the downside after earnings were published, bringing it slightly below the strike prices of the short options and bringing the gain to 34.6% of maximum potential profit, well above my target of 25%. I exited.
Shares declined by -1.5% over one day, or a -557% annual rate. The options position produced a 53.0% yield on debit for a +19,349% annual rate.
FB publishes earnings on Wednesday after the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
FB’s IV stands in the 059th percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Wednesday, May 3, 2017
5/3 – 3:20 p.m. New York time
Today’s outcomes: I entered a new position on FB and exited positions on AAPL and GILD, updating their analyses with results.
I analyzed TSLA but rejected the trade.
KRE has an exit order at its target price and I shall update its analysis after the close if it is filled, which seems unlikely at this point.
GILD Analysis
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Update 5/3/2017: GILD fell sharply after earnings were published and then traced a zig-zag pattern only slightly above its low in the decline. I exited a 24.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by7 2.9% over one day, or a -1,042% annual rate. The options positoin produced a +33.2% yield on debit for a +12,114% annual rate
GILD publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
GILD’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.
AAPL Analysis
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Update 5/3/2017: AAPL declined rapidly after earnings were published and then, just as rapidly, reclaimed most of the loss, ending up shortly below the short-option strike options. A sharp drop in implied volatility broad the position to my target price, and I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net decline of 1.4% over one day, or a -493% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.4% yield on debit for a +12,197% annual rate.
AAPL publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
AAPL’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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