5/2 – 3:40 p.m. New York time
Today I entered new positions on AAPL and GILD.
I have an exit order in on KRE but it has yet to be filled. If it goes through I shall update the analysis after the closing bell.
PFE Analysis
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 15%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
PFE’s IV stands well below my standards in its annual range, at the 5th percentile.. Relative to its most recent broad movement, volatility stands in the 53rd percentile, which meets my standards.
AMD Analysis
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
Update 5/8/2017: AMD gapped dramatically to the downside after earnings were published and never returned to profitability. I exited as options expiration neared.
Shares declined by 25.5% over seven days, mostly on the first day of the period, for a -1,330% annual rate. The options position produced a -100.0% loss on debit for a -5,214% annual rate.
AMD publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 64%, which is 6.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
AMD’s IV stands in the 44th percentile of its annual range and the 51st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Monday, May 1, 2017
The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, global trade
The Federal Open Market Committee ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement that may include a further increase in the federal funds rate.
The Labor Dept. will publish its monthly report on the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Expect early guessing of the top numbers based on the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.
Other major reports for the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.
Live: Friday, April 28, 2017
CVX Analysis
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Update 4/28/2017: CVX rose sharply after earnings wee published and then dropped back to near the short options strike prices, allowing me to exit at 29.5% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.8% over one day, or a +288% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.9% yield on debit for a +15,306% annual rate.
CVX publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CVX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
GM Analysis
General Motors Co. (GM)
Update 4/28/2017: GM gapped higher at the opening bell after earnings were published and then declined sharply, ending up near its closing price the day before. I exited my position at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed at net rise of 1.0% over one day, or a +346% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +40,758% annual rate.
GM publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
GM’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 66th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
EXPE Analysis
Expedia Inc. (EXPE)
Update 4/28/2017: EXPE fell after earnings were published and I exited at 25.5% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 2.5% over one day, or a -964% annual rate. The options position produced a +34.1% yield on debit for a +12,462% annual rate.
EXPE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
EXPE’s IV stands in the 47th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
BIDU Analysis
Baidu Inc. (BIDU)
BIDU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
BIDU’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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