8/23 – 3:20 p.m. New York time
I entered two positions today, earnings plays on GM and WHR. I have attempted a long-shot exit/roll on TLT at my target, so far without success.
Month: October 2017
The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, global trade, homes
The first look at gross domestic product for the 3rd quarter will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. This release, the advance estimate, will be followed by two additional revisions.
Appetite for big-ticket items will be quantified on Wednesday with the release of the durable goods orders report, and the report on international trade in goods will be out on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m.
Also impacting the week: New home sales on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and the Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash release on Tuesday at 9:45 a.m.
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HAL Analysis
Halliburton Co. (HAL)
HAL publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on Nov, 3.
Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is !0 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
HAL’s IV stands in the 2tth percentile of its annual range and the 72nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Friday, October 20, 2017
Live: Thursday, October 19, 2017
10/19 – 2:50 p.m. New York time
I have declined all potential trades without subjecting them to full analysis.
ATHN and ETFC have overly wide bid/ask spreads. HON and KSU have wide intervals on their options grids that put the at-the-money points over far from the nearest strike prices.
I exited DAL for a profit.
VZ Analysis
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
VZ publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Oct. 27.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
VZ’s IV stands in the 57th percentile of its annual range and the 34th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
AXP Analysis
American Express Co. (AXP)
AXP publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Oct. 27.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
AXP’s IV stands in the 40th percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Wednesday, October 18, 2017
LRCX Analysis
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)
LRCX publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Oct. 27.
Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
LRCX’s IV stands in the 90th percentile of its annual range and the 95th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
IBM Analysis
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
Update 10/18/2017: IBM’S earnings came it at $3.30 per share, slightly below the $3.33 Street consensus. Shares shot up by $10.58, and the continued to rise, breaking past the $156.42 resistance level set last June.
The rise carried the share price beyond the profit zone’s $4.50 in either direction and above the expected move of $4.85 and the maximum post-earns move of the past year, $6.47
Zacks indicators missed the move, showing neutral for the score and an upside surprise for the earnings.
Shares rose by 8.0% over my one-day holding period, or a +2,912% annual rate. The options position produced a 42.6% loss for a -15,538% annual rate.
IBM publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Oct. 27.
Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is 2.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
IBM’s IV stands in the 74th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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