Live: Monday, April 30, 2018

4/30 – 2:20 p.m. New York time

I have posted results for my two SPY positions,  here and here, which I exited a short time ago. This wraps up trading for today. I shall be looking for re-entry points on Tuesday.

Here’s my latest Elliott wave count, on a 15-day chart with 10-minute bars.

spy20180430

4/30 – 1:30 p.m. New York time

The 10-minute chart Fisher Transform moved to uptrending, and I have exited my SPY positions for a loss. Updates with results to come shortly.

4/30 – 11:20 a.m. New York time

The Fisher Transform on the SPY daily chart moved to uptrending, and that is my signal to exit my SPY positions, here and here.

The 10-minute chart Fisher Transform remains downtrending, and I shall use it as my guide for when to exit today or early Tuesday.

I outlined the tactical exit requirements in my 10:40 a.m. post in the April 20 live feed.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 30, 2018

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The Week Ahead: Jobs, money policy, income, outlays, global trade

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, with any interest rate changes being announced on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time. And on Friday, the week’s second blockbuster hits the markets: The employment situation report, out at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview with the ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major reports during the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m.,and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index, published Tuesday at 10 a.m.

Fed Vice-Chairman Randal Quarles discusses liquidity regulation and the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet at the Hoover Institution’s Monetary Policy Conference on Currencies, Capital and Central Bank Balance, in Stanford, Calif. at 5:30 p.m. New York time.

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Live: Friday, April 27, 2018

4/27 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

As of less than an hour of the closing bell, SPY has traded within a narrow range today. I placed no trades and exited none.

I shall post The Week Ahead on Saturday.

4/27 – 11:45 a.m. New York time

SPY continues its decline as described in Thursday’s chart talk. I see no need for action on my positions, here and here.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 27, 2018

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Live: Thursday, April 26, 2018

4/26 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

SPY continued to rise in an A-wave upward correction at the Subminuette level, exceeding the 78.7% Fibonacci level. I entered no new positions today and exited none of my existing positions.

4/26 – 11:35 a.m. New York time

SPY on Wednesday moved into a 4th wave correction to the upside in the Minuette degree. It has in a Subminuette A wave retraced 78% of the Minuette 3rd wave decline. Since SPY is now in a 4th wave and the 2nd wave was a zig-zag, then by the principle of alteration the present move ought to be a flat (sideways) move.

I’m uncertain about the degrees that I’m using on my count, but ultimately, it doesn’t matter for my decision. I know SPY is in a 4th of wave of some degree, and the next move is likely to be to the downside, either as a B wave of some degree or as a 5th wave in the direction of the impulse downtrend. Either one will trigger the Fisher Transform into a downtrending mode, signaling an exit.

My SPY positions were analyzed at entry here and here.

Below, a 10-day SPY chart with 5-minute bars, annotated with my Elliott wave count and the Fibonacci retracement of the Subminuette A wave correction (a) discussed above.

SPY20180426a

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 26, 2018

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Live: Wednesday, April 25, 2018

4/25 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

No trades today. Little change in the chart from this morning.

4/25 – 11:05 a.m. New York time

SPY continues its decline, continuing the trend that began after the April 18 peak. My chart analysis of Tuesday remains valid. The Fisher Transform this morning still signals a downtrend. So at this point I see no need for action on my two bear positions on SPY, which I analyzed here and here.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 25, 2018

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Live: Tuesday, April 24, 2018

4/24 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

The magnitude of today’s decline has led me to revise my Elliott wave analysis, although ambiguities remain.

I am now counting the 5th wave of Submicro degree to have been completed on April 18. In my previous analysis I had labeled it as the end of the 3rds Submicro wave.

If wave [C] of the Micro wave is indeed the end of the correction, then we will have begun a 3rd wave to the downside at the Subminuette level, which will be quite bearish and therefore beneficial to my positions.

However, it is also possible that the correction is extending into more complex patterns, in which case the Subminuette 2nd wave is continuing.

Time will tell which is the correct count. As the late baseball great Yogi Berra put it, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”

Below, a 15-day chart with 10-minute bars on SPY:

spy20180424

4/24 – 11:30 a.m. New York time

SPY’s course remains consistent with the chart analysis posted Friday in my April 20 live feed; the Fisher Transform continues to show downtrending. I anticipate no trades today unless either of those metrics changes. (Analysis upon entry of my two bear positions on SPY are here and here.)

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 24, 2018

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Live: Monday, April 23, 2018

4/23 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

The SPY daily-chart Fisher Transform remains downtrending. No trades today.

I use the Fisher as a trigger for action, although my decision on what action should be taken relies on Elliott wave analysis, a far more subtle way of looking at the charts.

4/23 – 11:25 a.m. New York time

The chart analysis included in my April 20 live feed remains consistent with today’s early trading of SPY, which remains within Friday’s range. (Entry analyses of my positions are here and here.) And my exit signal remains unchanged; I shall close the positions when the Fisher Transform moves from its present downtrending signal to an uptrending signal. Given the present state of the chart, a trade out seems unlikely today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon April 23, 2018

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The Week Ahead: GDP, housing, manufacturing, trade

Traders will get a first look at 1st quarter gross domestic product, including the GDP deflator, a measure of prices said to be the preferred metric of money regulators, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

A handful of other major reports during the week spans the economy:

  • Housing: Existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Tuesday, each at 10 a.m., along with a report that breaks out regional variations, the Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metropolitan areas, out Tuesday at 9 a.m.
  • Manufacturing: Durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and the Purchasing Managers index composite flash report.
  • Exports vs. imports: international trade in goods on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

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Live: Friday, April 20, 2018

4/20 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

With less than an hour to go before the closing bell, SPY and the S&P 500 have traced out a net decline for the day. My count shown in the chart, below, stands.

I placed no trades today. Look for The Week Ahead to be posted on Saturday.

4/20 – 10:40 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500 and its exchange-traded fund SPY are continuing the decline that began on April 18. My bear positions, whose entry analyses are here and here, are benefitting from the decline.

However, the Elliott wave count shows that after the present Submicro 4th wave to the downside is complete, a 5th wave will push upward, exceeding $271.30 on the SPY chart by an unpredictable distance. My positions expire May 18, which is 28 days from today, and so my best strategy will be to exit during the 4th wave of the Submicro degree and roll my positions forward to a later expiration.

I intend to use the daily chart Fisher Transform as my exit signal. It moved to downtrending on April 19 after a two-week-long uptrending signal. A return to uptrending will tell me to get out of the positions immediately.

I have updated the 15-day, 10-minute-bars chart this morning to show the current Elliott wave count.

spy20180420

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 20, 2018

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Live: Thursday, April 19, 2018

4/19 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

The SPY metrics are largely unchanged from the market open, and I have placed no trades today, neither entering nor exiting positions.

4/19 – 10:45 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500 declined in early trading this morning, and more notably, the daily chart Fisher Transform signaled a downtrend for the first time since April 3. Volume continued to fall through Wednesday’s trading, and the advance-decline ratio continued to decline for a second consecutive day.

All of which indicate a waning enthusiasm for the blue chips, which is a good sign for my bear positions in SPY, the fund that tracks the index. The entry analyses are here and here,

In Elliott wave terms, the decline can be interpreted as the beginning of a 4th wave correction of within the Micro-level C wave that began April 6. But it could also be seen as a continuation of the 3rd wave within C. Time will tell.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 19, 2018Read More »