Bitcoin Analysis

3:35 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Bitcoin futures today continued their decline from the high of 57,7890 set on February 21.

What does it mean? If the price stays below that high, then Bitcoin has begun a downward movement that as either a correction of the rise that began December 14, 2018 from 3120….

What are the alternatives? … or, it has begun a downward correction of the still incomplete rise that began on February 10 from 43,950.

[Bitcoin futures at 3:37 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? If the price remains above the February 10 level of 43,950, then the rise did not end on February 21 and wave 5 of Subminuette degree is still underway. If the price moves below 43,950, then either the uptrend ended on February 21, or wave 5 of Subminuette degree is taking a Diagonal Triangle formation. If it is expanding, then the price will bounce between widening trend lines for five waves.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

I recommend two books, both by people associated with EWI.

First, Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost is the book that, along with Prechter’s analyses, that created the revival of Elliott wave theory. I first read it in 1984, and it has had a profound influenced on my thinking about markets ever since.

Second, I’ve found Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, both of EWI, to be a useful book that relates Elliott wave theory to practical trading. The authors are hands-on Elliotticians, and for an active trader, that’s exactly what’s needed — less theory and more how-to. The first chapter of the book gives a very nice thumbnail run down of what Elliott wave theory is all about.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette
  • {-4} Subminuette
  • {-5} Micro
  • {-6} Submicro
  • {-7} Minuscule

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 23, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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