SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose slightly higher than at the opening, to 4249 on the futures and 4249.74 on the index. The analysis is unchanged. I’ve updated the short-term chart.

10:05 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? At the opening bell the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the index both moved above the high of May 9 after four days of trading within a narrow range just a few points below that peak.

What does it mean? The new high means the correction following the May 9 high has been a minor pullback within an uptrend stretching back to February 23, 2020. The new high requires a tentative repositioning of the upper boundary of an expanding triangle that began on December 26, 2018, from 2346.58 on the index. I say tentative because the rise from 2018 is not yet complete and each new high will require a readjustment.

What’s the alternative? The alternatives will concern just how much upside remains. At this point, I haven’t a clue. There’s no requirement that the present upward movement cover a lot of ground, nor a barrier to it doing so.

Charts. First, a short-term chart, covering the same period we’ve been tracking since the decline began on May 9.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

… and then a long-term chart showing the entirety of the expanding triangle so far.

[S&P 500 index at 10:03 a.m., 2-day bars]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave 3 of Minor degree is still under way, a year and three months, plus a few weeks, after its inception. Within Minor 3, the correction, wave 4 of possibly Subminuette degree, ended on May 19, and the subsequent wave 5 of the same degree is still in an early stage, which I’ve labeled as wave 1 of Bitsy degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 10, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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