SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 since the opening bell has traded within a narrow range, staying below yesterday’s high of 4249 on the futures, 4249.74 on the index. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:50 a.m. New York time

Added a graf to the Elliott wave analysis section, below.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures in overnight trading remained below yesterday’s high of 4249.

What does it mean? The uptrend that began May 13 at 4066 continues. A price channel for the rise that began on March 4 from 3720.50 suggests that the price will reach the 4500s or higher before touching the channel’s upper boundary and reversing course.

What’s the alternative? Although prices tend to reach the upper boundaries of their channels, there’s no guarantee they will do so. An early reversal is possible.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The price channel tracks wave 5 of Minuette degree, which began on March 4 from 3720.50. The lower boundary connects the starting points of waves 3 and 5 of Subminuette degree, with the parallel upper boundary passing through the end of Subminuette 3.

Presently, from small to large, wave 3 of Micro degree is underway, within wave 5 of Subminuette degree within wave of Minuette degree.

One striking aspect of the chart is the flatness of wave 3 of Micro degree. Third waves are usually powerhouses, with enough strength to trigger hopeful talk of a bull market. This is a very weak third wave. To my thinking, the shallow angle of the rise suggests that the S&P 500 will struggle to reach the upper boundary of the price channel.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 11, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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