SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded in a sideways pattern — wave 4 of MIcro degree — throughout the day, reaching a high of 4247.50 on the futures, a point and a half below the June 10 peak. I’ve updated the chart. The analysis is unchanged.

9:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to trade slightly below the June 10 high of 4249.

What does it mean? The lower price level, by my principle analysis, means that the rise that began on May 13 from 4029.95 is complete, and the following downward correction has begun.

What’s the alternative? The chart is also consistent with the a smaller correction within an ongoing rise from May 13.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from May 13 to June 10 is wave 3 of Micro degree within wave 5 of Subminuette degree. I expect the 4th wave correction following Micro wave 3 to be shallow, as 4th waves tend to be. Also, the preceding 2nd wave correction was a Zigzag pattern, and by the rule of alternation, the 4th wave ought to be a Flat. All of this is happening within a series of 5th waves of higher degrees, up to wave 5 of Minute degree, which is the final wave of its parent, wav 3 of Minor degree, which began on February 23, 2020.

The end of the Micro 4th wave correction will mark the start of a push to new highs as wave 5 of Micro degree.

In the alternate analysis, the trading since June 10 has been a lower-degree correction within a still incomplete wave 3 of Micro degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 14, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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