SP500 Analysis

4 p.m. New York time

Juneteenth. U.S. markets will be open on Friday, the new Juneteenth holiday.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to trade above its overnight low while remaining below yesterday’s high, which marked the start of a steep decline coinciding with release of the Federal Open Market Committee statement and FOMC member forecasts.

The news-driven fall proved to be short lived, as the futures bounced back to a high so far of 4221.75.

No change to the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued their decline overnight, coming close to the lower price-channel boundary of the rise that began on March 4.

What does it mean? Under my principle analysis, I expect the price to reverse shortly (or perhaps it already has reversed) and reach new highs as the uptrend that began on May 19 continues, with a near-term upside target around the 4270s and a longer-term target in the low 4400s.

What’s the alternative? If the June 14 high proves to have been the end of the uptrend that began March 4, falling short of the upper boundary of the price channel. then a correction is already under way. When it complete, the rise will resume toward the longer-term target.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hours bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle analysis, the decline that began yesterday is a corrective subwave within rising wave 3 of Submicro degree. Under my alternative analysis, the June 14 peak was the end of Submicro 3 and Submicro wave 4 has begun. A decline below the June 3 low — the beginning of Submicro wave 3 — would buttress the case for the alternative analysis.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 17, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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