Bitcoin Analysis

1:20 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Bitcoin futures fell to new lows following a near-term peak of 41,335 on June 15.

What does it mean? The decline is a final wave in a downtrend that began on April 14, when Bitcoin set a high of 65,520. It will be followed by an upward correction that will take back much of the decline since mid-April but will fall short of that all-time.

What’s the alternative? If the price moves above 65,520, then the decline that began April 14 was a correction within an ongoing uptrend.

[Bitcoin futures at 1:16 p.m., 4-hour bars]

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle count, the downtrend that began April 14 is wave 5 of Submicro degree with wave 1 of Micro degree, the beginning of a downtrend involving many larger degrees. Submicro 5 is the last waver in Micro 1, which will be followed by an upward correction, wave 2 of Micro degree, which will likely take the form of a Zigzag and will recover a large portion of the decline from April 14. Micro 2 will in turn be followed by an energetic 3rd wave decline.

By the alternative count, the decline from April 14 is a downward correction, perhaps wave 4 of Subminuette degree, within a rising wave 5 of Minuette degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at