SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued its rise, reaching 4241.75, a level less than points below the June 14 peak of 4258.25. As noted in this morning’s alternative analysis, if that level is breached, then the decline since June 14 has been a correction within an ongoing rise, which dates back to February of last year. Chart updated.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued their rise overnight and in the past few days has taken back around three-fourths of the decline from June 14 to June 20.

What does it mean? The movement is an upward correction of the mid-June decline. By my principle count, the rise is the first leg of the correction, and will be followed by a downward move within the correction, and then a final push to the upside.

What’s the alternative? If the price rises above the June 14 peak, 4258.25, then the mid-June decline was a downward correction of an ongoing uptrend, the the subsequent rise — still underway — was either a resumption of the larger uptrend or a countertrend movement within the downward correction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise overnight, wave A of Submicro degree, approached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level but has stayed below it. Under my principle analysis Submicro wave B will carry the price down while remaining above 4126.75, the starting point of wave A. The B wave will be followed by a C wave to the upside, which most likely will end above the end of wave A. The A wave is still underway, so there’s no way to put a number to its end point.

Under the alternative analysis, the low of June 20 ended a downward correction, and the subsequent rise is the first wave of a resumption of wave 5 of Micro degree, the larger uptrend.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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