4:35 p.m. New York time

After the closing bell. The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range during the day, staying with 23 points on the futures and 14 points on the index. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

10:10 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 4370.75 in a small correction within the final leg of an uptrend that began on July 19.

What does it mean? The uptrend, typically, will end close to the boundary of the price channel that began in March, presently in the 4360s and rising.

What’s the alternative? Uptrends sometimes fall short of the boundary by a large measure, a condition called “truncation” in Elliott wave theory. So it’s possible that yesterday’s high, 4422.50, was the end of the uptrend, and the overnight decline was a first step in a significant downtrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle count, the overnight decline was a correction within rising wave 5 of Minuscule degree within wave 5 of Submicro degree. The simultaneous completion of those waves, near the upper boundary of the price channel, will mark the end of wave 3 of Micro degree within wave 5 of Subminuette degree. Micro 3 will be followed by a 4th wave correction — probably a sideways-trending Flat pattern — and then a 5th wave push to new highs.

Under my alternative count, wave 5 of Minuscule degree up to wave 3 of Micro degree ended well short of the channel boundary, at yesterday’s high of 4422.50. Under this scenario, the overnight decline was a first step in wave A of Submicro degree within wave 4 of Micro degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The highs so far in the resumed uptrend are 4422.50 on the futures, 4429.97 on the index. I’ve updated the chart, indicating which labels have changed from this morning’s analysis.

11:30 a.m.

New high. So much for intuition. The S&P 500 moved above last Friday’s high, to 4421.75 on the futures, 4429.27 on the index. So my the alternative analysis proves to be the right one. The July 27 low is the end of wave 4 of Minuscule degree, and the subsequent price movement is wave 5 of Minuscule degree. More to come in my afternoon wrap.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly in overnight trading, remaining below the July 26 high.

What does it mean? The lack of directional enthusiasm suggests to me that the correction that began on July 26 is still underway. This was yesterday’s alternative analysis, and I’ve promoted it to the principle analysis today.

What’s the alternative? Under this count, the correction ended at yesterday’s low, 4364.75, and the subsequent rise is a resumption of the uptrend and will soon produce new highs.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under the principle analysis, yesterday’s low, 4364.75, marked the end of wave A of Subminuscule degree within wave 4 of Minuscule degree within wave 5 of Submicro degree, which began on July 19 from 4224.

Under the alternative analysis, yesterday’s low marked the end of wave 4 of Minuscule degree.

Elliott wave analysis has an intuitive aspect, a right “look and feel”. The resumption of an uptrend looks very directional, like a line on the chart. The rise from Friday is very different, like a scribble by a bored child, with no clear sense of direction. That intuitive reasoning is why I’ve concluded that the 4th wave correction is still underway.

A move above the July 26 high, 4416.75, will confirm the alternative count as correct. While the price remains below that level, the principle analysis appears to be the most likely.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 29, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose during the trading day, reaching 4407.75 on the futures, 4415.47 on the index, in the early stages of a Minuscule degree 5th wave rise to new heights, or, in the alternative analysis, a B-wave rise within a Minuscule 4th wave correction to the downside. There was nothing in today’s trading to resolve the choice. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 rose in overnight trading from Thursday’s low of 4364.75, reaching 4404.50 as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? In my principle analysis, the decline from the high of 4416.75 on July 26 was a correction within the uptrend that began on July 19, and the subsequent rise suggests that the final leg of the uptrend is underway.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible to view the decline and rise a two stages within the correction, with a decline following this morning’s rise. If the price moves above 4416.75, then the principle analysis is correct. If the price returns to a decline without rising above that level, then the alternative count is correct.

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise that began July 19 is wave 5 of Submicro degree. Internally, it is nearing completion of its 5th and final wave, of Minuscule degree. The end of Submicro 5 will also be the end of wave 3 of Micro degree, which began on May 19. The price in the 4th wave Micro degree correction that will follow must remain above the end of the preceding 1st wave, at 4179.50, in order to satisfy a rule of Elliott wave analysis.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

2:20 p.m. New York time

Update. I’ve updated with results my entry analysis of my short bear call options spreads on XBI.

9:15 a.m. New York time

Options. I’ve exited short bear call options spreads on XBI for 54.8% of maximum potential profit. Under my rules, 50% of max profit or better triggers a sale. The position on Friday would have reached 21 days before expiration and so would have been exited if profitable to any degree. The next entry window, for the options expiring September 17, begins today and runs through August 10, with August 3, which is 45 days before expiration, being the midpoint.

I shall update my entry analysis with results later today.

Shares. I added to my NFLX and TSLA stock positions on Monday, and also opened positions on MDB, NVDA, TDOC and ZM. Positions added earlier, in addition to NFLX and TSLA, are AAPL, GLD and Bitcoin.

Methodology. For shares at this point I’m using traditional methods — glance at the fundamentals and the news, and buy on the drops. These holdings are meant for the long-term.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 27, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to work its way lower in a downward correction within uptrending wave 5 of Minuscule degree. The price so far has fallen to 4364.75 on the futures, 4372.51 on the index. I’ve updated the chart below.

9:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures in overnight trading stayed below Monday’s high of 4416.25.

What does it mean? The final wave of the rise that began July 19 is still underway. It will be followed by a correction.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible that Monday’s high marks the end of the rise from July 19. I consider this to be less likely, in part because the price is well below the upper boundary of the price channel that began on March 4.

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle count, the rise that began on July 19 is wave 5 of Minuscule degree within wave 5 of Submicro degree within wave 3 of Micro degree, which began on May 19. Micro 3 will be followed by a 4th wave correction that will stay above 4178.75, which is the end of wave 1 of Micro degree.

Under the alternative count, Monday’s high is the end of wave 3 of Micro degree and the 4th wave correction is underway.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 27, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to rise during the day, to a high so far of 4413.25, surpassing last Friday’s high of 4408.25. Wave 4 of Minuscule degree continues its upward track.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined when trading resumed over the weekend, reaching a low of 4375.50, nearly 33 points below Friday’s high of 4408.25. At the opening bell it resumed its rise.

What does it mean? My count views the Friday peak as the end of the middle leg within the uptrend that began July 21. The decline over the weekend was a correction, to be followed by a rise to new heights in the final leg of the uptrend.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible to view the Friday peak as the end of the final leg of the rise from July 21. If that’s the case, then it will be the end of the rise from July 19 and will be followed by a correction of the rise that began May 19.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under my principle count, Friday’s peak ends wave 3 of Subminuscule degree within wave 5 of Minuscule degree, which began on July 21. Subminuscule wave 4 is now underway and will be followed by a rising wave 5 of Subminuscule degree. The completion of Subminuscule 5 will also mark the end of parent 5th of of Minuscule and Submicro degrees, and up one degree higher, the end of wave 3 of Micro degree, which began on May 19.

Under the alternative count, Friday’s peak ends wave 5 of Subminuscule degree and the parent degrees described above. The correction of the rise that began on May 19 under this scenario is now underway.

If the pride rises above 4408.25, then the principle analysis is correct.

See the chart in Friday’s post for a broader view, back to last March.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 26, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 pushed past the June 14 peak to new highs, 4405.50 on the futures and 4412.81 on the index. The rise that began on February 23, 2020 — wave 5 of Minor degree — is still underway. At a smaller degree, the wave I’m tracking is wave 5 of Submicro degree. No change to the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:50 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, reaching a high of 4383 so far today. The price is a point and a half below the July 14 high.

What does it mean? The continuing rise shows that the uptrend that began on February 23, 2020 is still underway.

What’s the alternative? The primary uncertainty at this point is how high the price will go. A reasonable target is the upper boundary of the price channel tracking the rise that began March 4, presently in the 4530s. But a higher high of any amount will be sufficient to satisfy the requirements of Elliott wave theory.

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise that began on July 19 from 4224 is wave 5 of Submicro degree. It’s completion will cascade up the degrees, marking an end of 5th waves of Micro, Subminuette, Minuette and Minor degrees, and up one more, the end of wave 3 Minor degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 barely budged during the day as the closing bell approached. The high on the futures so far has been 4361.25, and on the index, 4369.87. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise in overnight trading, reaching a high of 4361.25, within 25 points of the July 14 high, 4384.50.

What does it mean? The price on Wednesday violated a rule of Elliott wave analysis, requiring a re-analysis of the chart. The principle analysis had considered the July 14 peak to be the end of a major uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. The new principle analysis (formerly the alternative) counts the uptrend as still underway.

Under the new analysis, I expect the price to move above 4384.50 and to eventually come close to the upper boundary of the price channel that began on March 17, which would bring it to the 4500s or higher.

What’s the alternative? The price could fail to reach the upper boundary of the price channel, which appeared to be the case before yesterday, ending the uptrend and beginning a major downtrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under the old principle analysis, the July 14 peak was counted as the end of wave 5 of Submicro degree, ending an uptrend that had begun on July 20 and a larger-degree uptrend that had begun on February 23, 2020.

The new analysis labels the July 14 high as the end of wave 3 of Submicro degree, the subsequent decline as Submicro wave 4, and the rise that began July 19 and is still underway as Submicro wave 5.

The end of Submicro 5 will also be the end of the wave 3 of Micro degree and of the parent wave, Subminuette wave 5. Above that level, in ascending degrees, the end of Subminuette wave 5 will also mark the end of Minuette 5, Minute 5 and Minor 3.

The price channel on the chart tracks the Subminuette degree. The end of Subminuette wave 5, in an ideal form, would approach or throw itself over the upper boundary of the channel. But that’s an ideal, not a requirement. It could very well fall significantly short of that boundary. That scenario is my alternative analysis.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 22, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 has continued to rise during the day, but only slightly, reaching 4348.75 on the futures and 4356.94 on the index. So far it has retraced 78% of the decline from July 14. More importantly, this rise, labeled a 4th wave has moved beyond the end of the 1st wave, violating a firm rule of Elliott wave analysis.

I’ve updated the chart but left the labelling as it was this morning — time constraints — and will post a revised labeling on Thursday morning. At this point I’m not all sure what’s going on.

9:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures paused overnight, rising only slightly above its level at yesterday’s closing bell and peaking 46 points below the July 14 high.

What does it mean? The slowing of the rise suggests that the correction of the decline that ended on July 18 is nearing an end, or possibly that the first leg of that correction is ending.

What’s the alternative? If the price resumes its rise today, exceeding the July 14 high of 4384.50, then the subsequent decline has been a correction within the continuing rise that began on July 20, and at a larger scale, began in Februrary 2020.

What does Elliott wave theory say? I’ve counted the low of 4224 on July 19 as the end of wave 3 of Minuscule degree within wave 1 of Submicro degree, the first steps of a downtrend that will eventually reach below 2000. (See yesterday’s analysis for a big picture discussion of the chart.) The subsequent rise, up to a high of 4338.50 at today’s opening bell, is wave 2 of Minuscule degree, and 2nd wave correction. It is possible that the rise is the first wave, the A wave of Subminuscule degree, within Minuscule wave 2.

Were the price to exceed the July 14 peak of 4384.50, then wave 5 of Submicro degree, which began on June 20, would still be underway. The subsequent decline would be a correction within that 5th wave.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 21, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose during the day, reaching 4329 on the futures, 4336.84 on the index, remaining about 50 points or a little less below the July 14 peak of 4384.50. No change to the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? In overnight trading, the S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed from Monday’s low, 4224, in a small-degree correction within the downtrend that began July 14 from 4384.50.

What does it mean? The decline that began on July 14 is a first small step in a downtrend that will eventually fall by 2000 points and more. The July 14 high marks the end of an uptrend that began February 23, 2020.

What’s the alternative? If the price reversal continues to rise and exceeds the high of July 14 — 4384.50 on the futures, 4393.68 on the index — then the uptrend that began in February 2020 is still underway, and the entire decline since July 14 has been a correction within that uptrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under the principle analysis, the July 14 peak ended wave 3 of Minor degree, the 3rd leg of an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018 as wave 5 of Intermediate degree. Prices in diagonal triangles bounce between the boundaries of a price channel that grows wider every day. The channel low today is about 2030, and in the time it takes the price reach that level, the boundary will have moved further down. So it’s a chase, of sorts. At the lower boundary the price can be expected to to reverse and begin a trip back up to the upper boundary as wave 4 of Minor degree, and after that, wave 5 will chase back down to the lower boundary, bringing the Diagonal Triangle to an end.

Nearer term, the decline from the July 14 peak will take the form of sets of five waves, three in the direction of the trend, separated by two corrections. The waves in the direction of the trend will in turn contain five waves internally, and those contrary to the trend will have three internal waves. That’s ignoring for now the complexities that can make Elliott wave analysis a challenge. Presently, I count the decline as being in wave 4 of Minuscule degree within wave 1 of Submicro degree — the first baby steps of what will be a long process.

In the alternative analysis, if the price rises above the end of wave 3 of Minor degree, 4384.50 on the futures, then Minor wave 3 is still underway and the decline that began on July 14 is a correction within Minor 3.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 20, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.