SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Thursday and Friday. The U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. They will re-open on Friday for a shortened session, closing at 1 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 has traded within a narrow range so far in the session. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell in overnight trading, remaining well above the November 23 low, 4649.

What does it mean? A upward correction that began from that low continues, within a downtrend that began from the November 22 peak, 4740.50.

What’s the alternative? The downtrend is itself a correction within an ongoing uptrend that began on October 6 (marked on the chart in red).

[S&P 500 E-mini futues at 3:30 p.m., 115-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under my principal analysis, the present location is wave 2 of Subbitsy degree within wave A of Bitsy degree within wave 4 of Subminuscule degree, which began on November 23. When Subminuscule wave 4 is complete, the price will move to new highs as wave 5 of Subminuscule degree.

Under my alternative analysis, wave 3 of Subminuscule degree, which began on October 6, is still underway and will soon resume its upward course to new highs.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 24, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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