General Mills Inc. (GIS)

Update 12/23/2021: I exited my short iron condor position on GIS 29 days before expiration, for a $1.03 debit per contract/share, a profit before fees of $64 per contract. Shares were trading at $65.99, down $1.83 from the entry level.

The Implied Volatility Rank at exit was 23.9, down 48.1 points from the entry level.

I exited because the position reached 25% of maximum potential profit, my normal exit point for earnings plays.

Shares declined by 2.7% over three days for a 328% annual rate. The options position produced a 31.1% return for a 3,780% annual rate.

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I have entered a short iron condor spread on GIS, using options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on January 21. The premium is a $1.35 credit per contract share and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $67.81.

The Implied Volatility Ratio stands at 72.0%

Premium:	$1.35	Expire OTM
GIS-iron condor	Strike	Odds	Delta
Calls
Long	75.00	95.0%	7
Break-even	71.35	83.5%	19.5
Short	70.00	72.0%	32
Puts
Short	65.00	69.0%	28
Break-even	61.35	79.5%	18
Long	60.00	90.0%	8

The premium is 27% of the width of the position’s short/long spread. The profit zone covers a 5.2% move to the upside and a 10.5% move to the downside.

The risk/reward ratio is 2.7:1, with maximum risk of $265 and maximum reward of $135 per contract.

How I chose the trade. The trade was placed to coincide with GIS’s earnings announcement, beforer the opening bell on the day after entry. The short strikes were set to coincided with the expected move of $2.83 either way, based on options pricing, which gives a price range of $66.25 to $69.37

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 20, 2021

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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