Update 1/11/2022: I exited my short iron condor position on CAG 39 days before expiration, for a $0.67 debit per contract/share, a profit before fees of $22 per contract. Shares were trading at $33.99, down $0.64 from the entry level.
The Implied Volatility Rank at exit was 15.1%, down 30.7 points from the entry level.
I exited because the position reached 25% of maximum potential profit, my normal exit point for earnings plays.
Shares declined by 1.8% over six days for a 112% annual rate. The options position produced a 32.8% return for a 1,998% annual rate.
I have entered a short iron condor spread on CAG, using options that trade for the last time 44 days hence, on February 18. The premium is a $0.89 credit per contract share and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $34.63.
The Implied Volatility Rank stands at 45.5%.
The premium is 35.6% of the width of the positions short/long spread. The profit zone covers a 15.2% move to the upside and a 12.1 move to the downside).
The risk/reward ratio is 2.4:1, with maximum risk of $211 and maximum reward of $89 per contract.
How I chose the trade. The trade was placed to coincide with CAG’s earnings announcement, before the opening bell on the day after entry. The short strikes were set to coincided with the stocks expected move of $1.05 either way, based on options pricing, which gives a price range of $33.55 to $35.65.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 5, 2022
Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.