Update 3/31/2022: I exited my short bull put vertical options spread on MKC, 50 days before expiration, for a $1.09 debit per contract/share, a profit before fees of $36 per contract. Shares were trading at $97.10, down $0.12 from the entry level.
The Implied Volatility Rank at exit was 25.8, down 25.3 points from the entry level.
I exited because the position reached 25% of maximum potential profit, my normal exit point for earnings plays.
Shares declined by 0.1% over three days for a -15% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.0% return for a +4,018% annual rate.
I have entered a short bull put options spread on MKC, using options that trade for the last time 53 days hence, on May 20. The premium is a $1.45 credit per contract share and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $97.22.
The Implied Volatility Ratio stood at 51.1%.
|MKC-bull put spread||Strike||Odds||Delta|
The premium is 58% of the width of the position’s short/long spread. The profit zone is fairly constrained on the downside, covering a 0.8% move in that direction, and covers an unlimited move to the upside.
The risk/reward ratio is 2.4:1, with maximum risk of $355 and maximum reward of $145 per contract.
How I chose the trade. The trade was placed to coincide with MKC’s earnings announcement, before the opening bell on the day after entry. The short strikes were set to coincide with the expected move of $0.81 either way, based on options pricing, which gives a price range of $96.41 to $98.03, with adjustments for the options being 17 days out before expiration. An unadjusted expectation gives a range of $93.17 to $101.27
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 28, 2022
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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