9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures stair-stepped higher overnight, from a low of 7121.25 shortly after the closing bell on Tuesday to a high of 7157.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory places this rise within wave D{-5}, a rising subwave of wave 4{-4}, a larger downtrending correction that began on October 28, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, with five subwaves labeled A through E, each composed of three smaller waves.

There is, however, a lack of clarity in the current structure. One interpretation is that wave D{-5} ended on April 17 at 7185.75, and that declining wave E{-5} has already begun.

Yet the price action since that high does not convincingly support that view. Compared with the full advance of wave D{-5} from 6353.25, the pullback so far is shallow and tentative. It does not yet resemble the kind of sustained decline that would be expected if wave E{-5} were underway and ultimately headed toward the 6300s or lower.

This creates a conundrum: the wave count allows for the start of E{-5}, but the price behavior does not yet confirm it. As a result, both possibilities remain in play. The market is, for now, moving sideways within that uncertainty.

Decision Points. 

• 7185.75 (April 17 high): A sustained move above this level would strongly suggest that wave D{-5} is still in progress and extending higher, invalidating the immediate start of wave E{-5}.
• 7157–7160 area (overnight high): Short-term resistance. Repeated failure here would reinforce the idea of a maturing or exhausted advance.
• 7120–7130 area: Near-term support. A break below this range would signal that the current sideways structure is resolving downward.
• 7090–7100 area: A decisive move below this level would begin to shift the weight of evidence toward wave E{-5} being underway, especially if followed by continued lower lows.
• Bottom line: Price remains range-bound beneath the April 17 high. A break above that high favors continued upside within D{-5}; a sustained move below 7090 would begin to confirm the transition to E{-5}. Until one of those levels gives way, the market is marking time rather than declaring direction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:45 a.m., 40-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com