3:30 p.m. New York timw

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 7390s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave C{-6} continues within rising wave D{-5}, which is the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. A move above 7384.50 would keep wave C{-6} extending and leave rising wave D{-5} intact. The first warning of a turn would be a decline below the most recent intraday pullback area, roughly the 7350s. A stronger warning would come if the futures fall back below 7326.50, the overnight pullback low. Until then, the chart still favors wave D{-5} as underway, although late in its structure.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a peak of 7366.25 overnight and then fell back into the 7330s, after setting an overnight pullback low at 7326.50.

What does it mean? An analysis using Elliott Wave Theory concludes that rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4} continues and is in its final subwave, wave C{-6}. The overnight reversal is notable but, by itself, is not yet enough to conclude that wave D{-5} has ended and downward wave E{-5} has begun.

Decision Points. A move above 7366.25 would keep wave C{-6} extending and leave the immediate upward structure intact. A decline below 7326.50 would be the first stronger warning that the overnight high may stand as the end of wave C{-6} and therefore of wave D{-5}. The larger confirmation would come only if the futures begin forming a sustained series of lower highs and lower lows, especially if price moves back toward the upper boundary of the expanding triangle. Until then, the map still favors wave D{-5} as underway, although late in its structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com