3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined from their overnight peak of 7410.50 and so far have reached a session low of 7345.50.

Elliott Wave Theory. The drop is sharp. And yet, it remains a small fraction of the full length of rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25. Today’s decline is less than 100 points — significant, but not massive — compared with the more than 1,000-point rise from the March low.

For now, I am retaining the rising wave D{-5} label. It is possible that wave D{-5} ended at the overnight peak and falling wave E{-5} has begun, but that has not yet been verified.

Decision Points. A recovery above the 7390s, and especially above 7410.50, would keep the rising D{-5} count intact. A continued decline below 7345.50 would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} may have begun. The more the decline develops as lower highs and lower lows rather than a quick recovery, the more likely it becomes that the 7410.50 peak marked the end of wave D{-5}.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued rising overnight, reaching a high of 7410.50 as the opening bell approached, then backing away into the 7380s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory shows rising wave D{-5} continuing, but also shows that any peak from here could be its last. That final peak would usher in declining wave E{-5}. If the Expanding Triangle count remains valid, wave E{-5} should carry the price back toward the C{-5} low at 6353.25 and perhaps into the 6300 area or below.

That future reading is possible because the parent wave, declining wave 4{-4}, has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle. By definition, each subwave within that form moves further than did the prior subwave traveling in the same direction. As the chart shows, wave C{-5} fell further than wave A{-5}, and wave D{-5} has risen further than wave B{-5} did.

But when will wave D{-5} end? No way to tell for sure. It is in its final subwave, wave C{-6}, so the end is near. How near is a mystery.

Decision Points. A push above 7410.50 would show wave D{-5} is still extending. A failure below that high, followed by a break below the overnight pullback area in the low 7390s, would be the first sign that upward momentum is weakening. A deeper break below 7377 would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} may have peaked and that declining wave E{-5} may be getting underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com