9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 7817 to 7853.75, remaining within the range covered the day before. The price subsequently retreated into the 7830s before recovering into the 7840s.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees rising wave D{-5} as being in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.
Wave D{-5} is the fourth subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.
Wave C{-6} is in its fifth and final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}, an impulse wave that is itself in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-8}.
Rising wave 1{-8} is in a second-wave downward correction, wave 2{-9}, and will have five subwaves in all when it is complete.
So when does wave D{-5} come to an end? That depends upon the degrees — the sizes — of the waves within it.
The chart shows four degrees below D{-5}. In reality, there are many smaller degrees, too small to be worth counting in this analysis.
When all the subwaves have completed their courses, wave D{-5} will end, and falling wave E{-5} will begin, eventually bringing wave 4{-4} to an end.
With the fourth-wave downward correction complete, Elliott Wave Theory anticipates rising wave 5{-4}, ultimately carrying the price to new highs.
Elliott Wave Theory is truly a complex dance of waves of many degrees.
Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 marks the end of wave 1{-9}. A rise above that level would indicate that wave 2{-9} has ended and the next upward phase is underway, requiring the smaller-degree count to be reassessed.
A decline below the starting point of wave 1{-9} would invalidate the present count of wave 2{-9}, since a second wave cannot retrace beyond the origin of its first wave. The October 1 low of 7711 remains a larger structural reference for wave 5{-7}.
The immediate question is whether wave 2{-9} has completed its correction, allowing the next upward wave to begin. The larger question remains when wave D{-5} will finish its final rise and give way to falling wave E{-5}.
Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
- 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
- D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
- C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
- 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
- 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 9, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
License
Based on work atwww.timbovee.com
