Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)

Update 11/1/2017: GRMN announced earnings of $0.75 per share, 2.1% over the $0.70 consensus estimate. The share price gapped up by $1.01 at the opening bell and continued to rise. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit; essentially, at my target.

Zacks didn’t predict an earnings surprise and had a neutral view of GRMN’s prospects.

Shares closed up $2.19 the first trading session after earnings were published, les than the estimated move of $2.72 and the maximum post-earns move of $3.70 during the past year, but greater than the average move of $1.68 and central tendency of $1.40.

Shares rose by 2.1% over my one-day holding period, or a +756% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.0% return for a +12,047% annual rate.

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GRMN publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Nov. 10.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GRMN’s IV stands in the 94th percentile of its annual range and the 70th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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10/31 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered two positions, GRMN and X. No exits.

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BP p.l.c. (BP)

BP publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Nov.. 10.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BP’s IV stands in the 52nd percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $39.67.

At this point I can go straight to a decision.

 

Decision for My Account

BP’s implied volatility stands at below my minimum require of double the VIX, at 1.906 to be precise. If I were having trouble finding trades I might bend the rule, but there’s no need this week, at the peak of earnings season. I can afford to insist on perfection. No trade.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 30, 2017

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Eaton Corp. plc (ETN)

ETN publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Nov.. 10.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ETN’s IV stands in the 53rd percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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10/30 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I have exited three positions and updated their analyses with results: MO, T and INTC.

I did a full analysis of ETN and partial of BP, declining both trades.

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The Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting, announcing any decisions on interest rates at 2 p.m. New York time.

The Labor Department’s employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, considered to me President Trump’s most likely pick during the week to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, gives introductory remarks to the Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His remarks will be delivered by pre-recorded video. Bloomberg News reported on Powell’s prospects.

If no black swans come swooping down, those three events will define the markets’ week.

Other major releases: Personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

A private sector report, the ADP employment report, will provide a sneak preview of the employment situation numbers on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.
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10/27 – 3;15 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I made no analyses, entered into no new positions and exited none.

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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

MSFT publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Nov. 3.

Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MSFT’s IV stands in the 76th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Intel Corp. (INTC)

Update 10/30/2017: INTC announced earnings of $1.01 per share, coming in well above the consensus estimate of $0.82. The stock price gapped up nearly $2 at the opening bell. I exited for a loss.

Although Zacks was bullish on INTC, it gave only a 0.06 score in favor of an upside earnings surprise. The post-announcement $3.69 move by the end of first trading day had exceeded the $2.24 maximum of the past year by $1.45, in line with a trend from last summer of the market giving outsized reactions that have cut into my profits.

Shares rose by 8.2% over my four-day holding period, or a 750% annual rate. The options position produced a -49.4% loss for a -4,142% annual rate

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INTC publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Nov. 3.

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

INTC’s IV stands in the 94th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)

Update 1/11/2018: I exited FXE for a loss as the options composing the position approached their final day of trading, Jan. 19. I shall roll it forward quickly into a new bear position, although I may decide to alter the structure to an iron fly or iron condor to provide greater protection against reversals.

The options went for a  $1.99 debit, producing a $0.54 loss. I shall defer calculation of results until completion of the series.

Update 11/7/2017: I have rolled FXE forward to another bear vertical position. 

I used options that trade for the last time 73 days hence, on Jan. 19.

Implied volatility stands at 7%, which is 7/10ths of the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FXE’s IV stands in the 15th percentile of its annual range and the 22nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Premium:	$0.45	Expire OTM
FXE-vertial	Strike	Odds	Delta
Calls
Long	116.00	83.9%	17
Break-even	113.45
Short	113.00	64.5%	37

The premium is 15% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 5.7:1.

The bid/ask spread is 2.2%.

I entered with shares at $111.91. The risk/reward ratio is high, but for a longer-term position buttressed by Elliott wave analysis, I’m willing to take that risk.

Update 11/6/2017: FXE fell steadily after I entered a bear vertical spread on Oct. 26 and exceeded my goal on Nov. 6. I rolled out at 52.4% of maximum potential profit.

The options went for a $0.20 debit with shares at $111.81.

I intend to roll the position forward on Nov. 7, and so will defer calculation of results until the roll series is complete.

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FXE tracks the EUR/USD currency pair, which peaked on Sept. 8 and has since been working its way lower. My reading of the Elliott wave count suggests a continuing downtrend, and I shall enter a bear vertical options spread.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 50 days hence, on Dec. 15.

Implied volatility stands at 7%, which is 3/5ths of the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FXE’s IV stands in the 19th percentile of its annual range and the 11th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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