Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)
DLTR publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Dec. 1.
Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
DLTR’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 86th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
11/20 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
Outcomes:
I entered two new positions today: HRL and SIG. Both are earnings plays using shares as a vehicle.
I rejected two earnings plays based on options: DLTR and LOW.
U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The U.K., Japan and Australia will be open as usual.
Two major reports are scheduled during the week, existing home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m. New York time and durable goods orders on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Nov. 1 meeting will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m. The committee maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a panel discussion at the New York University Stern School fo Business, on Tuesday beginning at 6 p.m. The event will be streamed live here.
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11/17 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
Today’s outcomes: I exited a shares position on SPLK for a profit, having passed on entering a shares position on SBLK (see below for reasons why).
Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements for acton on Nov. 16: SPLK. (Another satisfactory prospect, GLOB, is not supported by my platform for these trades, Robinhood Markets Inc.)
SPLK beat the Street earnings estimate, causing shares to rise sharply before the opening bell.
11/16 – 3:35 p.m. New York time
Outcomes: I entered SPLK as an earnings play using shares. I exited my options-based earnings play on CSCO and shares-based plays on WGL, HP, SFS and STNG.
Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements for acton on Nov. 15: WGL, HP, SFS and STNG. I exited all four positions the next day on Nov. 16, HP and STNG for a profit and SFS for a wash. WGL was a loss, but there was no earnings announcement. It was moved forward to Nov. 22 after the closing bell.
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)
Update 11/16/2017: CSCO beat its earnings estimate of $0.60 by a penny, coming in at $0.61. Shares opened $1.93 higher after the announcement. With an opening gap that large, I exited and took the loss.
CSCO went into the announcement with a neutral rating from Zacks with a small expectation of an upside earnings surprise (0.29 on the earnings surprise predictor) and a beta of 1.15.
The share price rose by $1.77 from the pre-earns close to the first close after earnings were published. The movement overshot the profit zone by 27 cents and the expected move, with 85% confidence, by 69 cents. It remained, however, within the average move and central tendency of the four prior quarterly earnings announcements.
Shares rose by 6.8% over my holding period of less than a full day, or a +2,484% annual rate. The options position produced a -35.1% loss on debit for a -12,824% annual rate.
CSCO publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Nov. 24.
Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CSCO’s IV stands at the peak of its annual range and its most recent broad movement.
11/15 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
My electric power is back and I am once again fully operational. It feels very odd to be cut off from the markets on a trading day. Just saying.
In today’s outcomes, I entered an options position on CSCO and share positions on WGL, HP, SFS and STNG, and exited shares positions on AUPH and MTOR. The analyses of positions I exited have been updated with results.
Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: AUPH and MTOR. I exited AUPH for a loss and MTOR for a profit.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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