Live: Monday, Sept. 25, 2017

Tim Bovee

9/25 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

I exited ORCL for a loss and placed no other trades.

I had said I would take a look at gold as a potential directional trade. Of the three vehicles for trading gold, only GLD has implied volatility high enough to meet my criteria for the sort of trading I do. The two mining funds, GDX and GDXJ, have low IV.

In Elliott wave terms, GLD peaked Sept. 7 in the apparent counter-trend rally from the decline that began in June 2016 and ended in December 2016.

Today’s movement was an upwave within the downwave of a greater magnitude, and i shall consider jumping in with a bearish direction trade one that short-term reversal ends and the downtrend resumes.

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The Week Ahead: GDP, global trade, new homes, durables, income, spending

Tim Bovee

The third and final regular estimate for 2nd quarter gross domestic product and international trade in goods will be published on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major reports out during the week: New home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m., durable goods orders on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and personal income and outlays, also at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland on Tuesday at 11;50 a.m. Her topic: Inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy.

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Live: Friday, Sept. 22, 2017

Tim Bovee

9/22 – 3:20 p.m. New York

I made one trade today, exiting JBL.

Next week will be a slow week as well, with three potential trades: CCL, MU and NKE.

9/22 – 10:10 a.m. New York time

I have rolled out of JBL because of the change in earnings publication date, as discussed in an update to the analysis, and shall consider re-entering on Wednesday, Sept. 27. If I do re-enter, then I shall treat today’s exit as a roll. If I decline to re-enter, then I shall treat today’s exit as the end of the trade and at that time shall calculate results.

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JBL Analysis

Tim Bovee3 Comments

Jabil Inc. (JBL)

Update 9/22/2017: I rolled out of JBL this morning, for a $1.75 debit with shares priced at $29.75,  because of the change in earnings publication date. I shall consider re-entering on Wednesday, Sept. 27. If I do re-enter, then I shall treat today’s exit as a roll. If I decline to re-enter, then I shall treat today’s exit as the end of the trade and at that time shall calculate results.

Update 9/21/2017: JBL moved its earnings announcement to Wednesday, Sept. 27, two days before the options in my position expire. I shall roll the position forward to a later expiration, probably the options expire Oct. 6.

JBL publishes earnings on Wednesday (Sept. 27 — see update above)) after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Sept. 29. (See update above.)

Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 3.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JBL’s IV stands in the 73rd percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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The Week Ahead: Money policy, housing

Tim Bovee

The Federal Open Market Committee culminates a two-day meeting on Wednesday with an announcement and forecasts at 2 p.m. New York time, and a news conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 2:30 p.m.

The FOMC raised the Fed Funds Rate to 1.25% on June 14. Widely held expectations are for one more rate increase this year, and Wednesday’s meeting would be a prime candidate for the decision.

Two major housing reports will be issued: Housing starts, on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and existing home sales on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

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