The number of employed Americans has risen compared to one year earlier every September since 2010. With the publication of the latest employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, we’ll learn how the numbers compared to the Sept. 2016 number of employed, which was 151,926, seasonally adjusted.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview with the release of the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Additional major reports out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders on Thursday at 10 a.m.

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Update 12/6/2017: I have exited TLT at a $1.14 loss, with the intent of rolling forward to a new position in the series.

Update 10/24/2017: Another roll forward for TLT with the strikes $1 lower, and the long-term government debt downtrend continues. I also moved the expiration date out a month, to Dec. 15, which is 50 days away from entry.

I exited my position of 10/4 for a $0.24 debit, or 50% of maximum potential profit, having entered for a $0.48 credit.

As I enter the 10/24 position, TLT’s IV stands in the 18th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement, although within a very narrow range that has held sway since July.

Premium:	$0.50	Expire OTM
TLT-vertical	Strike	Odds	Delta
Calls
Long	127.00	82.0%	16
Break-even	125.50
Short	125.00	66.0%	32

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9/29 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

I had one trade today, a directional play on TLT, and the analysis has been posted.

GLD appears to be still working a countertrend, so I am keeping a close eye on it but I’m not yet ready to do a directional play.

9/29 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

I have opened a bearish directional position in TLT. Analysis to come.Read More »

9/28 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

No trades today. I delayed trading GLD until I get a better sense of short-term direction.

9/27 – 9:15 p.m. New York time

I have no earnings plays on my calendar for Thursday. I shall continue investigating GLD as a potential directional play.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 27-28, 2017

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Jabil Inc. (JBL)

JBL publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 36%, which is 3.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JBL’s IV stands in the 79th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Accenture plc (ACN)

ACN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ACN’s IV stands in the 58th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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9/27 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

I exited MUMU for a profit and updated the analysis with results. I analyzed ACN and JBL but passed on both trades. See the analyses for my reasoning.

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Nike Inc. (NKE)

NKE publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NKE’s IV stands in the 80th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

Update 9/27/2017: MU’s earnings beat the Street estimate of $1.97, coming in at $2.02. Shares rose in overnight trading but stayed within the profit zone, and I exited at 27.6% of maximum potential profit, beating my 25% goal.

Shares rose by 2.9% during my holding period, or a +1,054% annual rate. Tye options position produced a 38.1% return for a +13,905% annual rate.

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MU publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 46%, which is 4.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MU’s IV stands in the 42nd percentile of its annual range and the 28th percentile of its most recent broad movement. The recent movement range was constructruted by ignoring an outlier spike in late June, and instead using the prior trend high

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9/26 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

The day went very much contrary to my expectations. I entered a position on MU today and analyzed NKE but passed the on the trade, with much discussion in the analysis as to what my thinking was in making the decision.

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