PLAY Analysis

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc. (PLAY)

Update 6/7/2017: PLAY rose after earnings were published. However, my exit order went through one minute after the opening bell, and the price was up only one cent from its level when I entered. It subsequently rose by several dollars. Implied volatility declined sharply, and the exit was at 35.9% of maximum potential profit.

The annual rate of the one cent change in the share price works out to a 0.05% annual rate of change. The options position produced a 56.1% yield on debit for a +20,468% annual rate.


PLAY publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PLAY’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

AMBA Analysis

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA)

Update 6/9/2017; AMBA gapped to the downside after earnings were published and declined only slightly more over the next two days, when I exited for a loss.

Shares declined by 12.5% over the three days, or a -1,523% annual rate. Tye options position produced a 35.4% loss on debit for a -4,306% annual rate.


AMBA publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 51%, which is 4.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

AMBA’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

CSIQ Analysis

Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)

Update 6/6/2017: CSIQ opened low after earnings were published and then rose back to near the prior day’s close, with falling volatility allowing me to exit near my target, at 24.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise during the day I held the position of 0.1%, or a +43% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.0% yield on debit for a +12,028% annual rate.


CSIQ publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 59%, which is six times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CSIQ’s IV stands in the 26th percentile of its annual range and the 77th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

THO Analysis

Thor Industries Inc. (THO)

Update 6/13/2017: Shares gapped up by more than $12 after earnings were published, fell slightly and then rose again. After unsuccessfully trying to exit for a profit for three days I exited for a loss.

Shares showed a net rise of 11.3% over eight days, or a +517% annual rate. The options position produced a 29.8% loss on debit for a -1,362% annual rate.


THO publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 50%, which is 5.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

THO’s IV stands in the 97th percentile of its annual range and the 81st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

JKS Analysis

JinkoSolar Co. Ltd. (JKS)

Update 6/7/2017; JKS fell sharply in the week prior to earnings and then began to rise in the few days after the announcement. I exited at 39.5% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 3.2% over the five days I held the position, or a -232% annual rate. The options position produced a +62.7% yield on debit for a +4,578% annual rate.


JKS publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 57%, which is 5.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JKS’s IV stands in the 39th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Live: Friday, June 2, 2017

6/2 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

I entered one new position, an earnings play on JKS, and exited seven positions:  AAPL, AVGO, CIEN, DG, EWZ, KORS and PANW. The EWZ exit wraps up a series, and I calculated results for the series s a whole.

I decided not to exit my one remaining position expiring next week, LULU.  It is within reach of profitability if it continues to fall, so the trend matches my preferred outcome. I intent to exit the position on Monday.

Read More »

LULU Analysis

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

Update 6/5/2017: LULU  gapped sharply higher after earnings wee published and then retraced a small portion of the gain, not enough to make the position profitable but sufficient to greatly mitigate the loss. I exited with four days to go before expiration.

Shares produced a net rise of 10.4% over the four-day lifespan of the position, or a +951% annual rate. The options position produced a 3.4% loss on debit for a -313% annual rate.


LULU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 63%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

LULU’s IV stands in the 87th percentile of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

Read More »