DAL Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update 4/27/2017: DAL did a fair imitation of a yo-yo after earnings were published, rising sharply from where it began the today and then falling to near its starting point, falling further the next day and then rising to slightly beyond the post-earnings peak, and then declined again to near where the fluctuations began.

All in all, a lot of Sturm und Drang, signifying nothing. I exited at 33% of maximum potential profit.

Shares staged a net decline of 0.8% over 16 days, or a +18% annual rate. The options position produced a 49.1% yield on debit for a +1,121% annual rate.


DAL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 38 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 27th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement, which is in a fairly narrow range typical of DAL for the past two months.

Read More »

The Week Ahead: Prices and retail

The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a religious holiday. Banks and the economic reporting machine will be open.

Two price indexes will be published during the week: The consumer price index on Friday and the producer final demand price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Also of note, retail sales on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a discussion with Susan Collins, dean of the Ford School in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday at 4:10 p.m.  The event will be streamed live here.

Read More »

Live: Friday, April 7, 2017

4/7 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I exited ORCL for a profit and partially exited LOW in what will prove to be a loss.

As the first rumbles of earnings season approach, I shall have four — possibly five — new positions next week based on earnings announcements, a welcome oasis in the desert of inactivity that marks my off-season trading.

Read More »

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade and a farewell

It’s jobs week again, one of the 12 milestones a year that provide a lagging view of a core metric of the state of the economy. The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, preceded by the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m., the latter providing a sneak preview of the main even that the markets pay attention to.

Other, lesser punctuations to the trading week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m., international trade on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March 15 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

Read More »