4/20 – 2:30 p.m. New York time
I entered a new position, an earnings play on V.
I exited three positions: CSX, EBAY and QCOM.
I am attempting an exit on DAL, but it appears unlikely to go through. If it does I shall update with results.
CSX Analysis
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Update 4/20/2017: CSX gapped sharply higher after earnings were published. I exited for a loss.
Shares rose by 6.7% over one day, or a +2,458% annual rate. The options position produced a -46.5% loss on debit for a -16,974% annual rate
CSX publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 30 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CSX’s IV stands in the 75th percentile of its annual range and the 64th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
EBAY Analysis
eBay Inc. (EBAY)
Update 4/20/2017: EBAY gapped to the downside after earnings were published but remained within the profit zone. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 4.1% over one day, or a -1,500% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.3% yield on debit for a +12,167% annual rate.
EBAY publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the APR monthlies options, which trades for the last time two days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 36%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
EBAY’s IV stands in the 75th percentile of its annual range and the 71st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
QCOM Analysis
Qualcom Inc. (QCOM)
Update 4/20/2017: QCOM declined after earnings were published but remained well within the zone of profitability. I exited at 45.6% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 1.8% over one day, or a -640% annual rate. The options position produced an 84.0% yield on debit for a +30,649% annual rate.
QCOM publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the APR monthlies options, which trades for the last time two days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
QCOM’s IV stands in the 85th percentile of its annual range and at the top of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Wednesday, April 19, 2017
4/19 – 2:30 p.m. New York time
I have entered three new positions today: CSX, EBAY and QCOM. The last symbol, QCOM, was added as a prospect shortly before the analysis; the new tactic I’m trying, described below, allowed the use of a better options grid.
I also exited three symbols, below my target of 25% of maximum potential earnings but still with good returns, in order to free up cash in my account for the trades remaining this week.
IBM Analysis
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
Update 5/15/2017: IBM gapped down sharply immediately after earnings were published and did it again 12 trading days later, placing the position squarely in the loss territory. As expiration approached I exited for a $14.93 debit.
Shares declined by 11.4% over 27 days, or a -154% annual rate. The options position produced a 52.2% loss on debit for a -706% annual rate.
IBM publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
IBM’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
ABT Analysis
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Update 5/1/2017: ABT rose over four days after earnings were published and then, in retracing the decline, reached my target price. I exited at 25.2% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.08% over 13 days, or a +2.3% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.6% yield on debit for a +944% annual rate.
ABT publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 1.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
ABT’s IV stands in the 38th percentile of its annual range and the 72nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Tuesday, April 18, 2017
RF Analysis
Regions Financial Corp. (RF)
Update 4/25/2017: RF whipsawed for a slight decline after earnings were published and then declined the day thereafter, then reversed to the upside, allowing at exit at my target of 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares rose by 0.7% over eight days, or a +31% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +1,521% annual rate.
RF publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 32 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 36%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
RF’s IV stands in the 35th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
NFLX Analysis
Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
NFLX publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 32 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 43%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
NFLX’s IV stands in the 48th percentile of its annual range and the 95th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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