Live: Monday, July 9, 2018

Tim Bovee

11:10 a.m. New York time

SPY gapped to the upside this morning, casting doubt on my Elliott wave count. I shall wait to gain some clarity about the chart before posting a re-analysis. ARKG is moving as expected.

I anticipate no trades today.

I had noted last week that I was taking a look at resuming earnings plays, with no great hopes that it would be possible in the current markets.

Initially, I plan to use Elliott wave analysis to gain a sense of what direction I expect the price to move, and the last two historical moves to gain a sense of magnitude, and then, on paper, see how it successful that prediction was.

PEP published earnings this morning before the opening bell.

I counted it as being in a 4th wave correction to the upside on the one-year chart, and shorter term, in a sideways movement within that wave. The last two historical moves were each 1%. So my expectation was for a small move of indeterminate direction.

PEP opened 3.9% below the pre-earnings close, but the test is where does it close at Friday’s expiration, the presumption being a very short-term play. I’ll keep track and post a table of all outcomes over the weekend.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 9, 2018

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Live: Thursday, July 5, 2018

Tim Bovee1 Comment

10:25 a.m. New York time

I have revisited the lower degrees of my SPY and ARKG analysis. Neither requires a trade this morning.

SPY has completed its 3rd wave at the Micro level and is now tracing out a counter-trend 4th-wave triangle, all of that within a 3rd wave decline at higher degrees.

The chart covers 20 days with one-hour bars.

spy20180705

ARKG appears to have completed an A wave of the Minuette degree as it begins to work through a 4th wave correction at the Minor degree.

The chart covers one year with daily bars.

arkg20180705

The next earnings season begins next week. Since the bear market began on Jan. 26, I’ve stayed away from earnings plays. I plan to revisit the issue this time around. That’s no guarantee that I’ll add such plays into my mix, but I want to see if I can get some sense of predictability that would allow me to profitably add them back into my trading mix.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 5, 2018

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The Week Ahead: Jobs, global trade, manufacturing and a holiday

Tim Bovee

Jobs take center stage in a week split by Wednesday’s Independence Day holiday in the United States. U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday, but London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open as usual.

The employment situation report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and the jobs report sneak preview, the ADP employment report, will be out on Thursday — a day later than usual –at 8:15 a.m.

Two other major reports out during the week: International trade, on Friday at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, published Monday at 10 a.m.

In Fedworld, the Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes from its June 12-13 meeting on Thursday at 2 p.m. At that meeting the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target federal funds rate by a 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2%.

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