4/12 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

I made no trades today.

4/12 – 11:25 a.m. New York time

Same song, different day. SPY continues a near-term sideways pattern, which I count as an upward correction within an ongoing downtrend.

Expiration of my options in the positions is more than a month away, so there’s time for the correction to complete its work and the downward movement to resume.

I hav two positions in SPY, whose entry analyses are  here and here. I have been concentrating my efforts on broad indexes since the bear market began on Jan. 26 and have no entries into new positons in sight today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 12, 2018

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4/11 – 2:50 p.m. New York time

SPY has barely moved during the day, as the markets approach their final hour of trading. I exited no positions today and entered none.

4/11 – 11:20 a.m. New York time

In the first hour of trading SPY has remained within the sideways range that began in late March. I shall continue to hold my positions (entry analyses here and here).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 11, 2018

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4/10 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

SPY remains below the high of April 5, continuing its sideways movement. I have exited no positions and entered none.

4/10 – 11:50 a.m. New York time

SPY remains bound within a range, today’s high so far staying below the April 4 peak within the present sideways move. Like yesterday, it’s a wait-and-see day.

Facebook Inc.’s CEO Mark Zuckerburg testifies before Congress today about the company’s handling of user data security. FB is has the 4th largest market capitalization among the S&P 500 companies, so if his hearing produces any OMG! moments, the index on which SPY is based might get a short-term bump.

The entry analysis for my positions on SPY are here and here.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 10, 2018

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4/9 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

With less than an hour to go before the closing bell, SPY has stayed within the prior trading day’s range. Basically nothing has changed on the chart, and I have taken no action on my positions in the ETF, which tracks the S&P 500.

4/9 – 10:10 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500, which underlies my positions in the exchanged-traded fund SPY (analyses here and here). In Elliott wave terms, the index continues to work through what appears to be a 2nd wave correction to the upside within a downward 3rd wave at the Minuette level, my preferred level for trading.

At this point there’s no need to exit the positions and I have no new positions in sight.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 9, 2018

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With the latest employment situation report out of the way, the economic reporting machinery has descended into lethargy. There’s not much happening in Econworld during the week, although I’m quite certain traders will find excitement elsewhere to keep the markets churning. President Trump? China? We’re counting on you.

The producer price index (final demand) will be published on Tuesday  and the consumer price index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes of its March 21 meeting, in which it voted, without dissent, to raise the federal funds index by a quarter point to a 1.5% to 1.75% range. There might be surprises. I’m betting not.

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4/6 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

The S&P 500 has continued to decline, benefiting my bear positions on exchange-traded fund that tracks the index, SPY (analyses here and here). The percentage of maximum profit on each position stands below 25%; my goal is to exit at 50% or higher.

No exits today, and I have no new positions in sight. Look for The Week Ahead to be posted on Saturday.

4/6 – 10:40 a.m. New York time

My Elliott wave count of the S&P 500 is unchanged from yesterday. I plan no exits from existing positions at this point, nor do I plan to enter any new positions.

I took a look at FXE, which tracks the EUR/USD exchange rate, but have decided not to pursue a trade at this point.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 6, 2018

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4/5 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions and exited none.

4/5 – 11:10 a.m. New York time

I’m continuing to focus on the broad indexes, using Elliott wave analysis. By my count, SPY attained a major peak on Jan. 26 and has reversed  in an impulse wave to the downside. That is, it has been a bear market since that day.

Early on in such reversals it is difficult to know exactly at what level each wave stands. By my count we are in a 3rd wave down at the Minuette level, beginning March 13, and within that wave, a 2nd wave up at the Sub-Minuette level.

The lower-level up wave is contrary to my bear positions. They options used to construct them expire in mid-May, and so I shall wait and see how the lower-level wave develops.

My goal generally is to trade the Minuette level, but it’s a guideline, not a rule.

I have no new positions in sight at this point. I plan to take at FXE, which tracks the EUR/USD currency exchange, to see if it is of interest.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 5, 2018

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4/4 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions today and exited none.

4/4 – 11:25 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500 remains in a 3rd wave down by my count using Elliott wave analysis. This mornings price decline brought one of my bearish vertical spreads on SPY to 27% of maximum potential profit, and the other to 10%. My goal is 50% or better, so I am taking no action this morning.

I have no prospective new positions today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 4, 2018

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Update 4/30/2018: I exited SPY as it continued an uptrending counter-trend correction. The decision was based on Elliott wave analysis and the timing on the Fisher Transform metric.

By my count SPY continued to trace out a 4th wave to the upside at the Minuette degree. It has completed requirements for an A-wave to the upside at the Sub-minuette degree, but without guarantees that the A-wave is indeed complete.

With 18 days left until expiration of the position, I chose to roll out now, for a $4.71 debit with shares at $265.83,  and shall re-enter a bear position at an appropriate moment with a later expiration. 

Shares rose by 2.6% over 27 days, or a +36% annual rate. The options position produced a -12.3% loss for a -166% annual rate.

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I have entered a short vertical bear spread on SPY, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on May 18. The premium is a $4.13 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $259.00.

I made the decision to enter the trade based on the Elliott wave count. I see SPY as being in a 3rd wave down within a 3rd wave down at the Minuette level, which is what I normally trade, within a 1st wave down at still higher levels.

The present wave down, which began on March 13, has yet to move below the Minuette 1st wave endpoint of $252.92 on Feb. 9. A decline below that level, which I’m betting on with this trade, will confirm that the 3rd wave is underway. A move back to the upside would suggest that the 2nd wave in the upward correction is not yet complete and doing something other than a simple zig-zag. Since 2nd waves almost always tend to be simple zig-zag patterns, I would be surprised to see something more complex happen. 

Time will tell, of course, and if I am proven incorrect in my judgement, my analysis will tell me when to get out in order to mitigate my losses.

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4/3 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

I added a bear position on SPY, essentially rolling my prior IWM position, which tracks the Russell 2000, into the more narrow market index tracking the S&P 500

4/3 – 2:10 p.m. New York time

I have added a new position on SPY to my account, a bear play. The analysis includes a discussion of my decision to take the trade based on SPY’s Elliott wave count.

4/3 – 1:40 p.m. New York time

Having looked over the possibilities for new trades, I think my best bet will be to add another position on SPY to my portfolio.

At this point in our new bear market, I’m relying heavily on Elliott wave analysis. The S&P 500, which SPY tracks, is one of the easiest symbols to analyze, in part because the quirks of individual companies are smoothed out by its breadth, and in part because the extremely high volume of trading makes it a good reflection of the public sentiment.

Tolstoy wrote in his masterwork Anna Karenina, “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”

But markets differ from families.

Bull markets, climbing a wall of worry, tend to show a great deal of individuality in the way stocks rise, depending upon the state of each company and its competitors.

Bear markets are all alike. They cascade their way down a cliff into the pit of panic, as all traders increasingly are convinced that the good times are gone — for good.

Trade and analysis to come shortly.

4/3 – 11:10 a.m. New York time

The downward rush in the broad markets has paused this morning, so will be monitoring my one remaining position, SPY, until it drops some more. It presently stands at 18.5% of maximum potential profit, and my goal is 50% or better.

My other task today will be to see what I can add to my account. That will depend on an Elliott wave analysis of the charts.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 3, 2018

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