SPDR Gold Shares  (GLD)

Update 2/12/2018: The gold markets began a downtrend from Jan. 25, a day before the stock markets, and have followed a similar Elliott wave pattern, reversing slightly to the upside in trading today. what I consider to be an upward correction within a downtrend.

I exited my bear position for a $0.54 debit with shares at $125.30. The maximum potential profit was 14.3%.

Unlike stocks, gold appears o be in a long-running sideways pattern. The decline that began Jan. 25 appears to be the beginning of a downward leg, although at what level I cannot yet determine. The last highest high was in July 2016, at $125.64 on GLD.  The prior lowest low was $100.23 in December 2015. Any movement beyond those boundaries would mean that something very interesting is happening with GLD.

Shares fell by 0.6% during my six-day holding period, or a -38% annual rate. The options position produced a 16.7% return for a +1,014% annual rate.

The weekly Fisher Transform (FT) continues to show GLD in a downtrend, and I shall use that as my definition of what the major trend is, given the ambiguities on the chart. That discrepancy between the daily FT and the weekly was my justification for exiting my bear position. In practical terms, it means I shall use the weekly FT as my directional bias while trading the daily FT signals.

 

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I have entered a bear call vertical spread on GLD, using options that trade for the last time 38 days hence, on March 16. The premium is a $0.63 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $126.09.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on its Fisher Transform reading..

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2/6 – 2:45 p.m. New York time

I entered a position on GLD and placed no other trades.

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MGM Resorts International (MGM)

Update 2/12/2018: MGM began its downtrend on Jan. 29, three days after the blue-chip indexes joined in and has followed an identical Elliot wave pattern, placing it in an upward correction within a larger downtrend.

I exited on a bull signal from the 3-hour Fisher Transformer (FT), choosing to exit without waiting for a 1-day FT signal because the position had already exceeded my management level of half of potential profit. 

As it turns out, when I exited for a $-0.24 debit with shares at $33.34, it was at 64.2% of maximum profit, which I consider to be a rousing success.

I count the wave as a 4th wave to the upside. Since the 2nd wave in the pattern was a highly directional zig-zag, the 4th will tend to be more of a sideways pattern. “Tend” in this case doesn’t mean “always”; there are exceptions.

Shares declined by 5.1% over seven days, or a -266% annual rate. The options position produced a +179.2% return for a +9,342% annual rate.

I shall next revisit MGM prior to its next earnings announcement.

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I have entered a bear call vertical spread on MGM, using options that trade for the last time 18 days hence, on Feb. 23. The premium is a $0.67 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $35.13.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on the Fisher Transform and expectations of a negative earnings surprise..

MGM publishes earnings on Feb. 20 before the opening bell.

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2/5 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

Two outcomes today: I entered an options position on MGM and exited one on UAA.

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International trade, the week’s lone major economic report, will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

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2/2 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

i exited three positions,  FUN, TRP and TLND, and entered none. My one remaining position is a bear call vertical spread on UAA.

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Cedar Fair L.P. (FUN)

I have entered a shares position on FUN, which publishes earnings on Feb. 14 before the opening bell.

FUN fell along with the broad market on Feb. 2, moving to a downtrend as measured by Fisher Transform. I exited based on the signal.

sym	entry	exit	result (%)	annualized (%)	entry date	exit date
FUN	68.5	67.76	-1.1%	-394	2/1	2/2

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 1, 2018

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2/1 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position on FUN and exited shares positions on  CG, K and UFS, and a binary options position on EUR/USD.

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Under Armour Inc. (UAA)

Update 2/5/2018: UAA fell steadily from the time I entered a bear call options spread. I exited at 28.1% of maximum potential profit, a bit better than my goal of 25%.

Shares declined by 5.4% over my five-day holding period, or a -391% annual rate. The options position produced a 39.1% return for a +2,857% annual rate.

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I have entered a bear put vertical spread on UAA, using options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on Feb. 16. The premium is a $0.32 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $14.11.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a downtrend signal from the Fisher Transformer and a very negative earnings surprise predictor of -80% from Zacks.

UAA publishes earnings on Feb. 13 before the opening bell.

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TransCanada Corp. (TRP)

I have entered bull position using shares on TRP. The company published earnings on Feb. 15 before the opening bell.

TRP fell along with the broad market on Feb. 2, moving to a downtrend as measured by Fisher Transform. I exited based on the signal.

sym	entry	exit	result (%)	annualized (%)	entry date	exit date
TRP	46.20	44.44	-3.8%	-695%	1/31	2/2

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 31, 2018

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