3/27 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I feel as though I am floating in the doldrums. But that’s what happens when a broad reversal in trend occurs, as happened after the Jan. 26 peak. It takes awhile to gain clarity, and as a result, I’m being extra cautious in how I trade.

A quick discussion of my holdings:

GLD reversed 12 cents below the Feb. 16 high of $128.70. A break above would have cast my bearish position in doubt.

IWM has resumed its decline and now stands at 28.2% of its maximum potential profit. My goal is to manage the position at 50% or higher.

DVN is holding in a sideways corrective trend, and I expect it to resume its movement to the downside. Timing, as always, is the great unknown.

It is a short week, with the markets closed on Friday for a Christian holiday, and such weeks generally have a dampening effect on market activity. So I don’t expect the doldrums to be replaced by strong trade winds during the next few days. Nonetheless, my sails are ready for hoisting once those winds develop.

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3/26 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I exited my position on FXE for a loss and entered no new positions.

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U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a Christian religious holiday, and will close on Thursday at 2 p.m. New York time. Markets will also be closed Friday in London and Sydney, but will be open in Tokyo.

A third and final estimate of the 4th quarter gross domestic product and GDP for all of 2017 will be published on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Two other major reports will be released during the week: International trade  in goods, also on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and personal income and outlays, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will address the Operation HOPE Global Forums in Atlanta on Monday at 7:10 p.m. His subject: “The Roles of Consumer Protection and Small Business Access to Credit in Financial Inclusion”.

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3/23 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

My bear position on X reached its management point, 50% of maximum potential profit, and I exited. Results to come soon. I shall consider the question of re-entry on Monday.

No other trades today, so this wraps up the week.

3/23 – 10:45 a.m. New York time

All of my holdings are solidly in line with my bearish assessment except for GLD, which gapped to the upside yesterday. The price remains below the high of Jan. 26, which marked the start of the present decline, and so I am inclined to hold the position and see what develops over time.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 23, 2018

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3/22 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I exited one position today, EL, and entered none.

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3/21 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions today and exited none.

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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)

Update 3/22/2018: EL reversed the day after I entered, and on the second day gave a downtrend signal on the Fisher Transform. I exited for a loss.

My shares position declined by 1.5% over the two-day holding period for a -264% annual rate.

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I have entered a long shares position on EL at a debit of $147.68 per share.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a high expectation of a positive earnings surprise, a bullish Zacks rank, an uptrend signal on the daily Fisher Transform and an Elliott wave count that shows, somewhat ambiguously, that EL in an uptrend. The rise from 2016 is poorly differentiated, but it appears to me to be in a 5th wave up in the rise since April 2017.

EL publishes earnings May 2  before the opening bell.

 

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2018

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3/20 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position on EL and exited none of my holdings.

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3/19 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions and exited one, MLNX.

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The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days beginning Tuesday, culminating with an announcement and fresh forecasts on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time and a news conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.

The FOMC last raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.25-1.50% on Dec. 14, 2017. A year ago the committee raised rates in March 2017 following a December 2016 increase. Based on that history an increase seems more likely than not, and also totally unsurprising and well priced into the markets already.

Otherwise, the week’s focus is on real estate, with existing home sales out on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and new home sales on Friday at 10 a.m. Also hitting the Street during the week, durable goods orders on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

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